Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Prospects Grim

Today's headlines:

The New York Times says: With Bailout Plans Unclear, Markets Tumble.

The Wall Street Journal says: Doubts on Rescue Plan Spur Fall
In Dollar, Leap for Oil




So what does it all mean?

This part of the Wall Street Journal article I noted above basically sums it up:

"The fear is that the bailout plan might not fix banks' woes effectively -- while also adding to the country's already sizable deficits. That pessimistic outlook is bad for the dollar, which weakens when investors see cause for worry in the U.S. economy and thus shy away from U.S.-based investments. Late Monday in New York, the euro had strengthened to $1.4839 from $1.4474 Friday. The dollar also lost ground against the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar. The dollar's retreat marks a possible turn in a powerful dollar rally that had been in place since early August.

Monday's turmoil reflects the fact that, after the initial market euphoria over the government bailout proposal, the reality is setting in that it isn't a quick fix for broader problems in the economy -- in particular, the declining home prices that are at the heart of the financial crisis. Goldman Sachs economists are sticking to a forecast for economic growth to grind to a halt by year end, followed by a meager recovery next year.

Even if the government's plan works as advertised, it could take years to have an effect."

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